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Slok's chart set also checks total factor productivity from a San Francisco Fed series and finds no AI lift. His read: mainstream companies now treat token spend as a margin cost, not a growth engine.
The thread's counter was a mill with a water wheel: you can't drop an electric motor into it, you rebuild the building.
The top HN threads: facts from the discussions, both sides, insider voices. Email, Telegram, or RSS.
Apollo's chief economist published a deck claiming the Magnificent Seven are starting to underperform, with AI capex projected to balloon roughly 70% past $700B this year while shareholders see no return. A Google staff engineer in the thread flagged the real bombshell on page 25: 60% more US data centers are now planned or under construction.
The catch: half the room called the headline a chart crime. 'You can't draw any conclusions from one month of market data,' one ETF specialist wrote, especially with a giant IPO distorting the window.